I’m a big believer in demographics, that is, if you want to see the trends of the future look at the population. After a major war you will probably see a baby boom as the returning soldiers start families. This baby boom will cause a rise in car and home sales, both big indicators of a growing economy. After a few years clothing and entertainment will start to show some action as children need to be clothed and have toys to play with no matter how bad the economy may be. This trend continues into the teenage years only substitute toys for bikes, CDs, electronic gadgets and small cars. Then the population swell hits its twenties and the economy tanks again as a huge number of people enter a job market that has for years maintained an equilibrium.
The economy is like water; it seeks its own level. There will be jobs for those who desire them but unless there is a boom in technology, the job market will not substantially increase over the size of the population. When a new generation enters this flat job market it causes a surge in unemployment as there are no jobs for these people. Why should there be? We didn’t need these jobs when the kids were all fifteen years old, but now that they’re eighteen they’re expected to find employment.
Apply this to the music business when the largest segment of the population, the aging Baby Boomers of the late 1940s to mid 1960s, ceases to buy new music. Boomers love music but they love their music. They’ve had forty years of music from which to choose and are not particularly interested in what their childrens music sounds like. After all, it mostly copies what came before, as did their own music, but now they’re more musically educated and can spot unoriginality much easier. Why buy something ‘Beatlesque’ when you can just listen to your Beatles records?
Folks may lament the passing of the neighborhood record store and blame digital downloading by the kids but it’s really the gigantic population swell that is the Baby Boomers no longer buying music that’s more to blame. We Boomers have our music and that’s all the music we’ll need for the rest of our lives. That music we loved in the 60s, 70s and 80s (and maybe a little 90s) still hasn’t gotten old to us. In fact, listening to the old songs helps us retain our youth. it’s not that we old folks don’t need music anymore, it’s that we already have all we need.
The economy is like water; it seeks its own level. There will be jobs for those who desire them but unless there is a boom in technology, the job market will not substantially increase over the size of the population. When a new generation enters this flat job market it causes a surge in unemployment as there are no jobs for these people. Why should there be? We didn’t need these jobs when the kids were all fifteen years old, but now that they’re eighteen they’re expected to find employment.
Apply this to the music business when the largest segment of the population, the aging Baby Boomers of the late 1940s to mid 1960s, ceases to buy new music. Boomers love music but they love their music. They’ve had forty years of music from which to choose and are not particularly interested in what their childrens music sounds like. After all, it mostly copies what came before, as did their own music, but now they’re more musically educated and can spot unoriginality much easier. Why buy something ‘Beatlesque’ when you can just listen to your Beatles records?
Folks may lament the passing of the neighborhood record store and blame digital downloading by the kids but it’s really the gigantic population swell that is the Baby Boomers no longer buying music that’s more to blame. We Boomers have our music and that’s all the music we’ll need for the rest of our lives. That music we loved in the 60s, 70s and 80s (and maybe a little 90s) still hasn’t gotten old to us. In fact, listening to the old songs helps us retain our youth. it’s not that we old folks don’t need music anymore, it’s that we already have all we need.
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