The Mathematics Of Building A Fan Base

Remember the old days, before the Internet and viral videos on Youtube? How did a band get a following in the days before social media and online video? As I recall they had to tour. They needed to play in front of as many people as they could and it usually took many years for a band to build a decent fan base. How does that work you ask?

Let’s say you play a club or a bar or a party that holds 100 people. In any given crowd about 10 per cent will like what you’re doing and about 10 percent will absolutely hate it. That is if you’re the average band, if you’re absolutely great maybe 20 per cent will like you but oddly enough, the percentage of people who hate you will be roughly the same as those who like you. How can that be? The better you are the more people will like you and the less people will hate you. Oh yeah? Tell that to The Beatles. For every victim of Beatlemania during the British Invasion there were two people who despised the Beatles. These people were called the parents.

Being “good” or being “bad” is completely objective. The “more” you are, that is, the more original, more extreme, more anything that you are the more extreme the reactions you’re going to get from the public. The more people like you the more people will hate you. In fact, the people who hate you might hate you especially because other people love you, and visa versa. It’s the majority of the people in the middle who really don’t care one way or the other about your show that are the biggest drag on your development.

In our crowd of 100 potential fans roughly 10% will appreciate what you’re doing and roughly 10% will think you suck. Don’t worry about the people who don’t like you, they serve their purpose since by spreading the word about how bad you are they will keep away those who share their taste and wouldn’t like your show anyway but their negative criticism will intrigue those who don’t like their taste in music. How many times have you heard a bad music or movie review from some critic that you think is a tight ass and it makes you consider seeing the show because if he doesn’t like, it must be good?

So, if ten people in our crowd of 100 like you and 20% of them like you enough to come see you again, that’s an extra 2 people to add to the ten at your next show that already like you. If those two who return each bring a friend whose taste they share, then you have four new fans. Let’s say only one of the new guests actually like you enough to return then that’s three that will come back and if they each bring a friend then that’s another six to add to the new ten fans you get each time you play. Eventually the percentage of actual fans of your show will reach 100% so that there aren’t any people in your audience that haven't either already seen you and have come because they want to see you again or are guests of those who are already your fans.

That’s one of the interesting things about a rock concert as opposed to a movie screening. A movie screening has mostly people who are seeing the film for the first time except for revivals and midnight screenings of old movies but rock concerts are filled only with people who already love the band, it’s a real unique energy and one of the real special aspects of rock and roll.

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